My experience with SpeedMerchant is that when the order gets shipped, a tracking notice is always sent promptly. so if it got shipped you will get a tracking notice. if you haven't received a tracking notice, then it probably hasn't shipped yet.
In my own experience, these guys(SpeedMerchant) are much quicker than some other small 1-2 person operations which will remain anonymous. (where my minimum wait was 4 weeks for shipping an order)
my recommendation is patience, and maybe hope for some spring conditions in the eastern US. I live in California, so I might be overestimating the situation, but the NorthEastern US has been getting hammered the past few weeks with winter snowstorms. these guys might still be defrosting.